After the reuters story about a greek aid package I shorted the spike expecting a reversal for the rumor ...
DJ New Greek Plan Would Include Increased External Funding -Reuters
DJ EU Agrees In Principle On New Greek Plan -Reuters
DJ New Greek Plan Would Run 3 Years -Reuters
What I did not expect was for it to be so quick, and the reason why? EU Commission denies the whole thing
Ended up as one of my definite better trades lately, so a great thanks to the commission.
While having an underweight view on equities other asset classes are worth a look. In addition to credits, one of the more interesting to follow, in my opinion, is foreign exchange speculation.
EURUSD is currently trading below the option barrier around 1.45 after having enjoyed a revival over the past two weeks (circled), as the sentiment towards the Greek situation has improved. In my opinion, however, the peripheral EUR situation is still so vulnerable (Portugal avaiting a general election shortly isn't exactly helping) that I expect a reversal of the past few week's gain, down towards the 1.40 - 1.41 area (38.20 fibb level at 1.4144 and 100 dma at 1.4061).
The 11th of March (OSEBX close 435) I expected a correction to OSEBX, which reached an intraday low over the past few months of 409 the 15th. This was less of a correction than expected (but still down 6% within a few days). Since then the index has returned to trading in the narrow tunnel of 430 to 445, having difficulties breaching the barrier of the 76.40 fibb levels. Closing today at 436, virtually unchanged since the last update (and as such a better return for being allocated elsewhere).
The uncertainties regarding the peripherals in the eurozone, as well as increasing signals of weaker growth in the economies still support an underweight in equities. This is further supported by expectations of rate hikes which should make bonds increasingly attractive, and could reduce liquidity flowing into equities. In the current yield environment, however, the credit spreads found for higher rated debt instruments supports investments in Floating Rate Notes rather than bonds or equities.
In support of buying OSEBX we have a rising 200 daily moving average, currently at 417 (roughly 4.5 per. cent. down from today's close) which could prove a resistance level. But the risks in the economy in my opinion still provide a poor Risk/Reward.
Updated technical analysis of OSEBX:
