After the reuters story about a greek aid package I shorted the spike expecting a reversal for the rumor ...
DJ New Greek Plan Would Include Increased External Funding -Reuters
DJ EU Agrees In Principle On New Greek Plan -Reuters
DJ New Greek Plan Would Run 3 Years -Reuters
What I did not expect was for it to be so quick, and the reason why? EU Commission denies the whole thing
Ended up as one of my definite better trades lately, so a great thanks to the commission.
While having an underweight view on equities other asset classes are worth a look. In addition to credits, one of the more interesting to follow, in my opinion, is foreign exchange speculation.
EURUSD is currently trading below the option barrier around 1.45 after having enjoyed a revival over the past two weeks (circled), as the sentiment towards the Greek situation has improved. In my opinion, however, the peripheral EUR situation is still so vulnerable (Portugal avaiting a general election shortly isn't exactly helping) that I expect a reversal of the past few week's gain, down towards the 1.40 - 1.41 area (38.20 fibb level at 1.4144 and 100 dma at 1.4061).
