Funny diversification

Who says investment can't be plain fun? The Norwegian financial newspaper Finansavisen brought up a new asset class that can be fun to diversify into[1], the world of models. In short we're talking venture capital by funding the start of a new modeling career.

The opportunity is provided by the modeling beuro Beauty Holding Ltd (hereafter BHL) [2], that started up in June of this year. The company, registered in the tax heaven Jersey, is founded by former top model Ingrid Devatova.

What is interesting is the risk/return evaluation, as you can purchase and sell shares in the models at any time until they reach the goal of $10,000, at which point the modeling company organizes photo-shoots in Paris and London. The returns of the first year is then shared 50/50 between the model and the sponsors. The 50% that goes to the sponsors is then distributed according to the buy-in , so that an $100 investment gives 1% of the return dedicated to sponsors (as total is $10,000).

Herein, however, also lies an obstacle. As the additional risk of investing early does not give a greater pay-off than investing late, one is really incentivized to wait till a model approaches the $10,000 before going in with anything. One thing that could be helpful in order to increase investments would have been to separate the payoff into trenches.

exempli gratia such that investment $0-1000 gets 12-15% of the payoff rather than just 10%, the next 1000-5000 gets a somewhat less share than that again, and the last 5000 gets slightly less than the respective percentage handed out today.

One thing that speaks in favor of today's system is the ability to sell shares at any time, and as such you can re-allocate whenever someone approaches the threshold level, but it still doesn't provide incentive to invest early.

Note that the numbers above are completely arbitrary, and the actual division would have to be based on an empirical analysis of returns as well as the amount of time it takes to reach the different levels in any such system.

As this asset class is not correlated (less correlated) with bonds and equity markets, it provides a fun way to spend pocket-money and masquerade it as diversification into a new asset class. And one gets responses from the different assets (girls) on the message board as time goes with updates and greetings.

For BHL it is also profitable, as they don't pay out anything until the assets reaches $10,000. The costs are not covered by the company, so in theory they can just put the money into interest-bearing papers and collect the interests, or build a more risky portfolio to increase the returns even more. Granted this can provide incentive for the company NOT to consider any trenching system in order to give quicker funding, a good example of principal/agent costs in finance.

If you want to read more about this scheme, visit beautyholding.com and check it out yourself. It can be quite a lot more fun than just looking at numbers all day 🙂

[1] Finansavisen,23. august 2008, pages 40-41
[2] http://www.beautyholding.com/

OSE: Time to tank up, or to run away?

The equity markets are more volatile than they have been in a while, and only risky capital should be used to increase exposure at this time, but is now the proper time to tank up and wait for an upswing, or should one run towards bonds or bank placements for a while more?

Amongst others the norwegian branch of the Icelandic bank Glitnir offers 6.5 pct nominal interest, and 7 pct nominal interest if willing to bind the capital untill 03.06.2009. This is money covered by the norwegian bank savings fund, so considered close to risk free up till the limit of rougly 400,000 USD per person per bank, that is, if spreading across two banks the limit is 800,000 et cetera. So considereing risk free rate at around 7 pct, and a risk premium of 8-10 percent, one has to expect at least 16-20 pct gains on alternative placements to want to enter.

If we look a bit at the development of the Oslo Stock Exchange (click image for larger size):

OSEBX.I closed at 435.73 today, after what can only be characterized as a couple of hopeless months, bringing us back to march 2007, if looking for another day with close at this level. As such this is well below the 200 day moving average of 461.71, but with a potential support level if trying to make a trend out of the turns in late january and early march of this year
The interesting thing is that norwegian companies still shows some promising earnings potential, so these levels, in theory, should offer some nice P/E ratios for people looking to invest. The obvious question is the investment horizon; One should not invest anything in equities if not willing to stay in the market for at least 5 years, and it is the volatility in the market that over time should pay off.

US shares closing higher with financial and healthcare stocks climbing the most should help tomorrow at least. Falling oil price taking away some pressure from the US market and worse than expected US pending home sales could not stop today’s recovery. SP500 closing the day 1.7 % higher. DJIA up 1.35% with Bank of America the best performing blue chip up 9.30%. Nasdaq100 up 2.40 %.

In the after-market Alcoa (AA) just posted better-than expected 2Q EPS of 66C vs analyst estimates at 65C and at the time of writing the futures are pushing upwards, which should at least make tomorrow an interesting day.

New addition to server farm: Delta

I haven't exactly been writing too much in this blog lately, but been busy with quite a lot of other things. The funds management company I'm working for has merged with another funds management company and I've started working for our covered bonds department in addition to funds management.

But now that summer is here I've managed to find some time for some fun, too. And this, obviously (for people that knows me it should be fairly obvious anyways), includes time spent working with computers and programming of such. The thing is, my server farm didn't cut it anymore, as Gamma was pushing the limits of it capacity. Beta is old enough as it is and Alpha is all the way in Ã…lesund doing its job nicely so I try not to overwork it too much.

This prompted the addition of a new server in the server farm, but first, lets recap the existing farm:

Gamma
For those who don't know already, Gamma is the primary server in my apartment in Oslo, it is Dell PowerEdge 1900 with a Xeon 5110 1.6GHz/4MB CPU and 2 GB of RAM consisting of 6x 750 GB drives in a RAID-5 setup contributing an efficient storage capacity of 3.4 TiB to the network (the rest of the overhead is ext3 overhead and system partitions).

Gamma serves DNS, as well as runs the SKS keyserver keys2.kfwebs.net as well as most other tasks on the LAN.

Beta
Beta is the oldest computer in the farm, aging back to 2001. It has a graphical setup and is used as workstation in Oslo. The CPUs are Dual PIII 1000 MHz and it has 1 GB of RAM and about 1 TiB of non-redundant storage. It is the router on the network and as such provides both a firewall, DHCP server and a squid transparent proxy.

Alpha
Alpha is the primary web and email server and is hosted on dedicated line in Ålesund. it runs the sks server keys.kfwebs.net as well as DNS. The server is a Dell PowerEdge SC1420 with a Intel® Xeon™ prosessor (3.00GHz, 2MB cache, 800MHz FSB) and 1GB DDR2 SDRAM (2×512MB 400MHz DIMMs). It has a 73GB SCSI Ultra320 (10000rpm) 1′’ 68 pin drive.

Delta
This brings us to Delta. Delta will be an addition to Beta and Gamma in Oslo and has a Intel Core 2 Quad Q9450 Yorkfield 2.66GHz LGA 775 95W Quad-Core Processor, 8 GB of RAM and 16 x 1TB drives in a RAID-6 setup with two redundant drives. This adds about 12.7 TiB of storage to the network (again looking away from system drives on the server itself)

To sum things up, running Monte Carlo simulations on this farm is rather quick.