Category: Finance

EURNOK positioning for a short

The Norwegian Krone has been sold on increased risk aversion as well as a selloff in comodities (rather oil dependant currency) . Also international investors to a great extent fail to distinguish between the Swedish Krone and the Norwegian krone. This has hit the NOK lately due to the swedish exposure to the baltic countries, in particular Latvia.

As a result we see an investment opportunity. The foreign exchange (FX) cross between Euro (EUR) and the Norwegian Krone, EURNOK, is hovering around 9.08 and 9.13. We consider this a good entry point for a short position of EURNOK and have sell orders in place at 9.12 and 9.13 for a longer term position.

4 hour chart

2009-07-10-eurnok-4h

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1 day chart

2009-07-10-eurnok-1d

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1 month chart

2009-07-10-eurnok-1m

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Overweight OSE again

OSEBX closed at 261.59* this friday. At these levels we consider the risk reward of long position to be profitable and increase weights in equities on the oslo stock exchange again.

2009-07-10-osebx

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We expect institutional investors to start joining from the sidelines and form an upward pressure. The main concern is the low liquidity/volume in the market, which can postpone the recovery. However, these levels are good entry points for long term positions.

* OBX (25 most liquid stocks) ended at 234.79

Neutral position

After a correction of the oslo stock exchange benchmark index (osebx) of roughly 13%, breaching below the 45 day moving average of 275 (closing at 270.49) we now change our bearish opinion to a neutral one.

2009-06-22-osebx

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Focus is on stockpicking rather than sector allocation, finding companies that shows good cashflows. Earnings season is ahead, and we expect there to be profit warnings (PWs) ahead of these, so thread careful.