Category: FX

EURUSD relatively stable in 1.51/52

EURUSD trades relatively stable in the 1.51/52 range today, despite Eurogroup's Juncker being in the wires again saying: "- EUR overvalued in relation to other currencies, - JPY and YUAN undervalued, USD somewhere in between, - USD tends to be undervalued rather than correctly reflecting fundamentals." (Reuters / Market News Int).

I'm only speculating on small varieties, with a bid/ask spread of 2PIPs relatively minor moves can give small profits, so I went in at spike at 1.5218 and out again some 10 pips lower with 8 pip profit.

All in all it is a nice and slow Tuesday with some Microeconometics lectures and some trading to make the the day slightly more interesting.

EURUSD testing new heights, high volatility

As EURUSD is testing new heights in the 1.52/53 regions with a high degree of volatility , Eurogroup's Juncker comes to the rescue with regards to a speculation on shorting EURUSD by stating a concern for a vigilant Euro, which supported USD. I shorted EURUSD at three positions (1/3 of total in each) before the announcement. And got a small profit directly after.

As too often, also in other aspects of my life, I fail the patience/risk-seeking to follow things through to get max profit though, and as such had some opportunity costs compared to if I just stuck in there a bit longer.

That said, the volatility and nervousness amongst traders makes it possible for the markets to go in unpredictable directions, and I figured closing out the position before having a mid-term exam and a dinner arranged by my bank afterwards probably was a good idea. The dinner by my bank is a concept called Bank & Bacalao. For those not familiar with Norwegian meals/dishes; Bacalao is made with the primary ingredient Clipfish (which again is made out of Cod (or as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic prefers, for price reasons, out of haddock ) ) , potatoes, tomatoes, paprika, soya oil, onions and spanish pepper or chilli. But I'm getting off track here..

EURUSD currently trades at 1.5186, which is still rather strong compared to USD (but it will, in time become even stronger) . We see USDNOK in 5.16/5.17, and if we don't have USDNOK at 4-levels sometime in 2009 I'd be very surprised.

Now, if only I learned how to become more patient... but at least I have a dinner with 800 crazy bankers and clients to look forwards to.

The fall and decline of USA and the USD

It has been quite some time since I've written anything in this blog, primarily for two reasons:

  • I've been too busy with everything else
  • I really haven't had that much on my mind that was worth writing about

But today I felt different, so here we go with my little rant, hopefully there will be some comments to it.

USD keeps depreciating against the Norwegian Krone (NOK). We have had a 2.26% depreciation the past two days and USDNOK is now trading at 5.1899. If we look at monthly data we see that NOK gradually has appreciated since 2002, when USDNOK was at levels above 9. It passed the 1992-high of 5.20 in august 2007 and is now trading around 5.19. This marks a 46% appreciation which, I believe, most will agree with is a massive movement.

I have no doubt that we will see USDNOK continuing to decline, and we'll see the 4-number before or during 2009. I speculate that after this; presuming the US can get its act together, we'll see normalization around 2013-2015 at a 6-7-range. But we'll see if time proves me wrong or right on that one.

One thing is certain. with EURUSD at 1.5, with expectations to reach 2 by 2010-2011, USA loses international purchasing power. The upside obviously being gaining competitive strength again.

And being competitive internationally is something the US of A has neglected for quite some time. If we e.g. look at the the automaker industry and agriculture; the political reign has been dominated by protectionism and neglected modernization, supported by, to mention one factor, strong lobbying from worker's unions.

If we look at the auto-industry, consider the gas-efficiency and some americans complaining about 2-3 USD / gallon gas prices. As a comparison, the after-tax-price on gasoline in Norway is about 13 NOK a liter, or 2.45 USD / liter, or about 9.26 USD / gallon. Then, if we look at the crude oil prices, which currently trades at or above 100 USD a barrel. Or, converted for american's convenience (it is not like we can expect them to do arithmetic), 100 USD per 42 gallons of crude oil; 2.38 USD / gallon for the raw material.

I expect to see even higher oil prices in USD-terms over the next couple of years, as USD depreciates against the Euro. Taking into account an EURUSD of 2 (versus today's 1.5) we have a 133 USD/bl oil price on just forex fluctuations. An oil price in the 150-200 USD range isn't something I'd be surprised to see, and that would still be relatively stable in Euro-terms.

With an upcoming presidential elections we can only hope that Americans will take a stance for a sustainable long-term economy, rather than going for the easiest quick-fix and consequently the politician promising the most. Of course, such a hope is against my better judgement, but that is after all why it is called hope.

Until then; the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are what can help the global economy by supplying increased consumption. If we look at today's situation; where USA has a net negative savings rate (being indebted on average), China has a savings rate above 50%. Politicians are already trying to bring the savings rate down and support consumption rather than savings, in order to offset negative consumption growth from the US. And we are indeed seeing a slightly higher effort in savings, if only it had happened 15 years ago.